Nanaimo’s population continues growing and carrying expansion of the city’s economy along with it.
Amrit Manhas, Nanaimo’s economic development officer, presented the 2025 State of the Economy Report to city council at a meeting May 5.
The 78-page document lays out impacts of population growth and shifts in demographics, business trends, development, real estate and rental markets, labour force, education, per capita income and spending, and statistical information on economic drivers.
Nanaimo’s population now stand at about 110,600, after growing 10.2 per cent per year from 2019 to 2024, and is projected to hit 120,200 in 2029. Visible minorities have risen from 11.8 per cent of the total population in 2019 to 14.4 per cent in 2024, and Indigenous residents now account for 8.2 per cent of the population, compared with 5.9 per cent across B.C.
“Population is still going to be growing steadily, but the rate of growth is going to be slower over the next five years … for the city, for the RDN as well as the province of British Columbia,” Manhas said.
Nanaimo’s population is aging, with the median age now at 44.4 years. The 25- to 64-year-old age groups will continue growing, Manhas said, and those residents play key roles in driving productivity, consumer spending, housing demand and essential services such as child care, transportation and health care.
Nanaimo households totalled nearly 46,000 in 2024. Single-person and “aging” households, representing people over 65 living alone, will trend upward in the next four years and push the demand for diverse, affordable and accessible housing.
The number of families – currently about 30,000 – will climb about 7.8 per cent annually through 2029. Married couples dominate family statistics, but single- parent family numbers – single female parents outnumber single male parents three to one – will rise, too, as will numbers of households with children who continue living at home while studying, caregiving or for reasons related to housing affordability.
Nanaimo’s average single-family home price climbed to $839,700 in 2024. The average cost for rent rose 6.3 per cent to $1,558 per month last year, even though the rental market grew by 9.7 per cent with 480 new units – the majority of which were one-bedroom units – and a slightly increased vacancy rate of 2.9 per cent.
Of the 30,305 homes in Nanaimo, 66 per cent were owner-occupied and 34 per cent were rented. Census data from 2021 noted 24.2 per cent of households in Nanaimo spent 30 per cent or more of their before-tax income for shelter, down from 27.2 per cent in 2016, but Manhas noted most new rental units are priced beyond the average renter’s financial reach.
A slowdown in residential construction in 2024 saw building permits plummet 44 per cent to $203.4 million. There were 34 major developments valued at $2 million or higher for 2023-24. Moving toward 2029, urban densification will continue to shift residents toward low- and high-rise apartment buildings.
More than 37 per cent of Nanaimo’s homes were built before 1980.
“In the period between 2019 and 2029 the total number of rental households is expected to grow by nearly 23 per cent … Nanaimo’s housing market is certainly undergoing a great transformation, represented by a shift towards apartment living, growing demand for rental properties, the expansion of the condo sector and an aging housing stock,” Manhas said.
Business licences jumped 8.3 per cent to 6,991 in 2024, driven mainly by new legislation requiring short-term rentals to be licensed.
Over the past 10 years the number of business that have more than one or two employees has grown by 13 per cent. Eighty-six per cent of Nanaimo businesses have fewer than 20 workers, 70 per cent are locally owned and operated and 36 per cent are home-based.
Nanaimo’s unemployment rate was essentially unchanged in 2024, going from 4.8 to 4.7 per cent, while Vancouver Island, B.C. and Canada saw unemployment rates rise. But Nanaimo’s labour force also shrank by one per cent, possibly due to retirement and workers going into retraining and education programs, Manhas said.
The city's major employment sectors are retail, health care and social services, food and accomodation, construction, education and the professional/scientific/tech sector. Nanaimo scores higher than the provincial average for employment in retail and health care and social services, but lags in the science and tech and manufacturing sectors.
“We have a relatively diversified economy, however, further diversification of our economy would mean expanding jobs in science, high technology industries, advanced manufacturing, essentially STEM-related jobs,” Manhas said.
Nanaimo households are becoming wealthier. The percentage of annual household incomes under $60,000 is expected to shrink from 42.4 per cent in 2019 to 24.7 per cent in 2029. The percentage of households earning more than $100,000 will jump to 51.8 per cent from 32.9 per cent for the same period and households earning more than $200,000 will rise to 16.7 per cent from 6.1 per cent.
“The shrinking low-income bracket (less than $45,000) suggests that rising housing and living costs may be pushing out lower-income households and this can impact community diversity as well as service sector employment,” Manhas said.
The living wage for Nanaimo of $23.79 per hour was the lowest compared to other Island communities reviewed with highest being Clayoquot Sound at $27.42 per hour.
Manhas summarized her report concluding that Nanaimo’s evolving demographic landscape will mean increased demand for smaller housing units for seniors and smaller families, continued investment in health care – including a focus on child and youth services to help attract and retain young families – seniors’ services such as long-term care, preventative health and active aging programs, and incorporating accessibility features in transportation and design to meet the needs of an aging population. Attracting younger workers will require targeting programs for workforce development, succession planning and mentorship “to maintain industry stability” and a focus on growing high-wage sectors like finance, technology and manufacturing would help “diversify the economy and lead to long-term economic resilience.”
“We also have a lower share of STEM graduates in Nanaimo compared to the B.C. average,” Manhas said. “That limits our ability to attract high-tech industry and innovation-driven businesses. So, encouraging stem eduction and IT workforce development can further boost diversification as well as encourage tech-based job creation in Nanaimo.”
